Incumbent operators that intend to launch IPTV and triple-play services may find ADSL2+ lacking, according to a new report, Fibre in the Last Mile: the business case for FTTP and VDSL, published by Analysys, the global advisers on telecommunications, IT and media.

"Real-life speeds of all DSL technologies can be as much as 40% lower at source than their theoretical maximum, and, despite continuing improvements in digital processing, ADSL2+ does not leave a lot of reliable bandwidth to play with over and above one HDTV stream," says Martin Scott, co-author of the report. "Standard digital TV may provide a stop-gap for the near future, but HDTV will be the future standard, and ADSL2+ won't cope. If ADSL2+ isn't enough then operators must look to VDSL2 and fibre," adds Scott.

Key findings from the new report include:

1. At present, cabinet-based VDSL technologies are the most financially-sound option in Western European countries, though payback will take at least six years
2. Large fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) builds will not earn a return on investment (ROI) for at least 15 years, making state-aided builds the only viable model. Operators should follow the lead of France Telecom, however, and initiate trials to gauge potential demand and usage
3. Telcos must consider losses from not upgrading copper networks, as well as gains from upgrading them. Cash lost from doing nothing could exceed cumulative negative cash flow from a fibre build after as little as ten years under favourable market conditions

This report brings together an assessment of the costs of VDSL and fibre deployments; forecasts consumer bandwidth demand based on the development of services including IPTV, video communication and remote working; and provides ROI scenarios for operators in Western European country markets.

Fibre in the Last Mile: the business case for FTTP and VDSL, evaluates the realistic deployment options for each of the DSL and fibre-based technologies that are likely to be used in Western Europe, identifies the options most commercially viable under local circumstances, and quantifies the take-up and revenue per service user needed to achieve an adequate financial return from each technology.

All media enquiries should be directed to Gina Ghensi +44 (0) 1223 452 729 or email gina.ghensi@analysys.com or press@analysys.com