There are contrasting expectations between industry views on mobile TV and market forces, according to recent work undertaken by the reasearch firm Analysys. Analysys's research suggests that whilst there is growing evidence pointing to a latent consumer demand for mobile TV services, it is not clear that this will translate to the expected level of demand for broadcast mobile TV.

"In essence, the industry is stuck in the traditional 'technology driven' approach, whereas consumers simply want to watch televisual content on the move, without consideration of the underlying technology used to deliver that content", says Jim Morrish, Senior Consultant, Analysys.

Specifically, the findings of research recently undertaken by Analysys suggest that:

• consumers are interested in forms of televisual content consumption other than simply receiving broadcast mobile TV - for instance, the download-and-cache of niche and longtail content as well as the time-shifting of content for viewing when and where convenient are both factors that are likely to be central to mobile TV consumption models, but do not require the construction of a broadcast mobile TV network
• with a high proportion of price-sensitive users and a premium placed on owning the customer relationship, competition will be high among all content providers and market forces will introduce competing supply chains. This will result in a proliferation of business models, many of which will make use of data-communication functionalities, not broadcast mobile TV functionality.

Morrish warns that it should not be assumed that mobile TV must involve the real-time broadcast of multiple channels.

"Indeed, this generally accepted model has a number of substantial drawbacks, not least of which are the fact that coverage of broadcast TV networks may not extend into underground rail systems where one of the key target groups (commuters) can often be found. Also, there is the implicit assumption that commuters will time their commute to coincide with the broadcast of the mobile TV content that they want to watch. Perhaps it is time to think outside the mobile TV box?", Morrish concludes.

At the 3GSM World Congress in Barcelona, 12-15 February 2007, Analysys has released key findings of its latest reports, Fixed-Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: causes and effects, and Strategies for MVNOs.