Screen Digest revised its usage data and forecasts on the online TV market in the UK. A surge in usage for the BBC’s iPlayer catch-up service has prompted Screen Digest to revise upwards its forecasts for free-to-view TV consumption in the UK. The change reflects the emerging prominence of the FTV model in driving usage of web-TV services.

Screen Digest reports that 0.8bn free-to-view online TV streams and downloads – including TV shows, sports and niche programming – were initiated by UK broadband households in 2007. This is now expected to rise to 1.5bn in 2008, and forecast to hit 2.8bn by 2012. Screen Digest analysis of comScore consumption data indicates that video streams initiated via the bbc.co.uk domain, including the iPlayer sub-domain, accounted for 38 per cent of total UK FTV streams and downloads in 2007.

UK FTV online TV revenues however remain unchanged, going from £19m in 2007 to £98m in 2012. This is due to the dominance of the BBC’s services, and lack of clear strategies from commercial broadcasters.

iPlayer’s success underlines comparative lag in other broadcasters’ delivery models
Screen Digest has repeatedly emphasised two major factors in determining a successful free online video proposition for broadcasters:

1) Browser-based open access delivery
2) Flash-based streaming

Browser-based open access delivery
The BBC’s decision to migrate the iPlayer’s focus away from a proprietary application download environment to an open access web streaming model coincided with the public broadcaster reporting a significant uplift in online viewers. As the BBC announced earlier this year, in the fortnight starting 25 December 2007, over 1m users visited the site, downloading or streaming over 3.5m programmes (250,000 daily).

Screen Digest believes that this growth pattern is sustainable and following clear ‘on-message’ marketing is likely to continue into at least the first half of 2008. This growth will be predicated on the BBC’s continued development of the iPlayer open web platform to include, for example, ‘platform syndication’ strategies such as enabling users to embed the iPlayer into third party websites and personal blogs.

The application-based strategies pursued by some UK broadcasters, which require users to download a heavy proprietary application before being able to download content, has so far erected an unnecessary barrier to initial consumer adoption and hampered market growth. For example, Channel Four’s 4oD platform still requires the installation of an application by viewers to access full online catch-up services, as does the BBC’s own iPlayer download service.

Flash-based streaming
Moving to a Flash-based streaming for full seven day catch-up has also been a critical move by the BBC, enabling non-Windows users to access programming. The democratisation of access to BBC catch-up services is in stark contrast to services offered by ITV.com and 4oD, which are still only accessible to UK broadband homes that have a Windows PC.

Future market potential dependant on commercial broadcaster strategies
Arash Amel, Senior Analyst says "Screen Digest is monitoring the development of the market. Our long-term financial outlook of the UK online TV sector will now be dependant on the future development of convincing platform strategies by UK commercial broadcasters ITV, Channel Four and Five, as well as new entrants such as Bebo, MySpace, YouTube and Joost.

It is expected that the success of the BBC’s iPlayer open web streaming model, and future 'viral syndication' strategies, will encourage UK commercial broadcasters to enter a long term reassessment of how they deliver programming to users."